Is this the last century of the printed newspaper?

Had it not been for the discovery of the newspaper called “Relation” in the town archives of Strasbourg (now located in France), the world would have been celebrating this year as the 400th anniversary of the birth of print newspapers. Traditionally the year 1609 was regarded as the year of birth of print newspapers. However it was in 2004 that the birth certificate of the newspaper “Relation”, a newspaper brought out by a gentleman named Johann Carolus was discovered. The World Association of Newspapers (WAN) acknowledges it as the first printed newspaper, which paved a way for a shift from handwritten newsletters to printed newspapers.

Decline of daily print newspaper:
Four centuries later, the print revolution seems to be tapering.
This April, the famous Christian Science Monitor will stop publishing a daily printed edition and instead move towards a weekly print edition and a regular online edition.  According to a post by David Cook, Staff Writer of The Christian Science Monitor, “Major changes in April 2009 that are expected to make it the first newspaper with a national audience to shift from a daily print format to an online publication that is updated continuously each day”.

The shift from a print to an online edition triggered a huge debate in media circles. Are we witnessing the fall of the print newspaper? The gradual decline of the printed newspaper has been heralded by many factors, primary among them being technology. While it was technology that helped newspapers increase their reach after the Industrial Revolution, it is technology again which is helping other forms to media to flourish threatening the established mainstream newspaper industry.

Spread of Newspapers:
Historically a host of factors have been responsible for the flourishing of the newspaper industry. First being the invention of the printing press which led to fast accurate and large scale printing. Second was the spread of education. With more and more people becoming literate, newspapers found new readers who wanted to quench their thirst for knowledge long after they had left their schools. Thirdly the increase in incomes of general public also helped newspapers find buyers. Finally, the emergence of the global world where events in one part of the world acquired importance in other parts also helped increase the utility value of a newspaper. The boom continued and in 2008, the World Association of Newspapers stated that everyday 532 million people bought a newspaper. Average daily readership of a newspaper was estimated to be 1.7 billion people each day.

Recent Trends:
However the trend of newspaper circulation indicated that circulation sales were down in North America, Europe and Africa; while it continued to increase in South America and Asia. The reason for the decline in newspaper circulation is attributed to a combination of various factors. The increase in newspapers in Asia and South America was attributed to three factors – increase in literacy rates in these countries, economic boom and low broadband speeds which prevented the online medium from competing with print medium.
However the end of the year 2008 and beginning of 2009 has seen the decline of the economic boom and the arrival of a economic depression like situation. Advertising revenues have fallen leading to an increase in casualty rate among newspapers.
The decline in newspaper advertisement is already affecting US newspapers. According to the Newspaper Association of America, the advertising revenue saw a fall of 9.4 per cent in 2007, the largest decline since 1950. Some major newspaper companies in the US have filed for bankruptcy protection in recent months.

Emergence of new medium:
A very critical factor has been the spurt of 24x7 television channels and online media. The television rides on the crest of images and visuals, something that the print media is not able to match. To replicate the convergence of sound and motion picture is something that the newspaper is unable to achieve. Secondly television is also available in a wide variety of delivery devices, from huge wall mounted screens to the portable TV and now the mobile.
However the television does not match the archival value of a newspaper of record. A subscriber can stack months of newspapers and maintain his or her own news clipping archives. The television finds it difficult to compete in this regard. Though there are recording technologies available it is still years away from becoming a suitable medium for archival at the consumers end.
Herein, net technology is emerging as a serious challenger. With increasing broadband speeds, faster computers and more tech savvy consumers, the online medium is providing a new convergence mechanism. It has been able to synthesize the positives of newspaper, radio and television, while adding certain features like search ability and user defined modules. It is faster than any known medium and yet it possesses tremendous archival value.

A Pew study on how people gathered information about the US presidential elections in the years 2000, 2004 and 2008. It indicated that people learning from newspapers has witnessed a clear decline, while the online medium is now accounting for almost a quarter of people. Online medium has also negated the concept of geographical limitations which were roadblocks to expansion of the print, radio or television. Since accessibility is not usually restricted by national boundaries, the accessibility of online media is rarely an issue except when some countries have barred certain websites. This problem is faced by the other forms of media as well.

Cost of operations: Having said this, it is important to look at the cost of running operations for a media organization. While launching and running a daily newspaper or a 24x7 television station can cost millions, the relative cost for online medium is much lesser. This has also led to many established media houses jumping into the online medium. But the spread of technology has resulted in individuals or a group of individuals entering into the arena without much capital investment. In the online medium, a David has often been able to take on a Goliath. However with spurt in online medium has meant that in the future the critical defining factor could be credibility of the websites or the credibility of the organization or individuals running it.

Digital divide and revenue models:
A major bottleneck for the online medium has been the digital divide. With certain disadvantaged sections still struggling with basic elements of education, the digital divide continues to be a stumbling block. Age and education continue to be critical factors influencing the digital divide. The Pew study in the US used three thermometers of internet access -- cell phone use and broadband access at home to map the digital divide. It states that “Offline Americans are overwhelmingly over age 70, have less than a high school education, and speak a language other than English.” Such people are more likely to use offline sources of news like the television, newspaper, radio and social folk media for their information. The issue for the online medium has been the revenue model. From purchasing online advertisements to Cost Per Click mechanisms have now emerged as revenue models. However this mechanism is still evolving and with rapid changes in technology, new models are expected to emerge.

It is Asia which will provide the answer:
To be able to pass a judgement on the future of newspapers, one must look at key and potential areas where newspapers are major players.
The top three countries as far as newspaper circulation is concerned are China, India and Japan. United States and Germany come fourth and fifth respectively.  7 of the top 10 newspapers are published in Japan, and 75 of the top 100 newspapers are in Asia.

The Yomiuri Shumbun is credited to be the largest newspaper in the world followed by the The Asahi Shimbun. These are the only two newspapers with a daily circulation of over 10 million. To put things in perspective the largest selling newspapers in the UK and US, namely The Sun and USA Today have a circulation of only around 2.5 million copies each. Hence to watch the progress or decline of print newspapers the focus should be on Asian newspapers.

Moreover as literacy rates increase, newspapers could be entering new markets in the under developed countries as well.
If newspaper circulation declines in Japan, China and India, it could pose the biggest ever challenge to the future of print newspapers. The impact of a major Asian media giant folding up could cause major upheavels and could have more impact than the decline of daily print edition of the Christian Science Monitor.
As of today, it is the markets in Asia which will decide the future of the print newspaper.